The final by-election in the Welsh Senedd may just be the final nail in the coffin for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The results were damning. The battle for a historic Labour stronghold became a two-horse race between Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru. It was unionist vs separatist, far-right vs centre-left; and on this occasion, it was Plaid’s candidate Lindsay Whittle who stormed to victory, winning 47.4% of the vote, comfortably overcoming Reform. Crucially, however, Labour was nowhere to be seen; a meager 11% vote share, down 35 points since the last election in 2021, represented a crushing defeat.
The political dynamics on display in Caerphilly were not exceptional. In fact, they were broadly aligned with recent polling that shows Reform and Plaid ‘neck and neck’ in the fight for a Senedd majority and Labour lagging behind. As with so many by-elections of the past, it remains to be seen whether this is merely a protest vote against the current government or a more damning, and more permanent, indictment of its record. With the Senedd elections less than a year away, it is important to probe the results to determine what can, and cannot, be said for certain in the wake of this historic loss for Labour.
So, what exactly can we learn from Caerphilly? For many commentators keen to disguise the failings of the current administration, the result in south Wales highlighted the importance of tactical voting above all else. It is undeniable that Plaid Cymru benefitted from reports in the run-up that showed a vote for Labour would be a wasted one or, perhaps more alarmingly, an inadvertent vote for Farage. As Labour is currently the ‘most likely’ party to challenge Reform across Britain, many are still clinging to the notion that Starmer will benefit from the same strategy nationwide that provoked his loss in Caerphilly. The ‘anti-Reform coalition’ that spans the left, centre and pro-European right of the British electorate will be forced to return the current Prime Minister to No.10 Downing Street out of fear for the alternative. In 2024, it was ‘Get the Tories Out’; in 2029, it will be ‘Keep Farage Out’.
But will that actually work? It’s unlikely – primarily because this optimistic analysis is, at its core, nothing more than wishful thinking. The suggestion that Labour will be more successful in maintaining ‘best of the rest’ status in their stronger seats implies that Caerphilly was a weaker one. Truthfully, however, nowhere should be safer for the Labour Party than southern Wales, an area that has voted red for over a century regardless of policy platform or performance.
The party itself was forged in the region’s mining towns, in the once-booming collieries now famed for producing the titans of 20th Century British socialism. Indeed, the NHS was born just a thirty-minute drive from Caerphilly in the town of Tredegar, the childhood home of Clement Attlee’s Minister of Health and architect of the National Health Service, Aneurin ‘Nye’ Bevan. Some decades later, former party leader Neil Kinnock, credited with the modernising reforms that brought the party back from the brink in the 1980s, was raised in the same area. And fifteen miles down the road, former Chancellor Roy Jenkins, who served in government under both Harold Wilson and James Callaghan, grew up in Abersychan, where the ironworks brought such prosperity to an area that has, since Margaret Thatcher’s premiership, suffered such destitution. A foundational part of the Labour Party’s history and identity is thus rooted in Wales and its industrial heartlands, and this has always been reflected by voters; Labour has never lost the Senedd.
Yet, in May 2026, it almost definitely will. Even the most ardent of Starmer-supporting optimists foresee electoral oblivion in the upcoming Welsh elections. Total collapse, from which Reform and Plaid will share the spoils, is nothing short of a foregone conclusion. Whether that is enough to dethrone the Prime Minister, as some of his MPs have suggested, remains to be seen; however, it will still represent an existential catastrophe for a government whose leader is already more unpopular than Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak ever were.
If Labour cannot keep Wales, it simply will not keep the rest of the UK. Losing the ‘red wall’ in the north of England in 2019 was fatal for Corbyn’s Labour; losing the Welsh wall may destroy Starmer’s for good.
The real lesson from Caerphilly, therefore, is one of worry for a uniquely unpopular government. It is now so unfavourable amongst the electorate that it cannot even rally tactical support, with voters confident enough to abandon long-held loyalties and hedge their bets with smaller, less-experienced parties. It was Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly but will likely be the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party elsewhere. Notably, these are all parties that have outflanked Labour to the left, taking bolder stances on domestic issues, such as the cost of living and housing crises, as well as international affairs, particularly with regard to Israel’s genocide in Gaza which Starmer’s cabinet has facilitated.
It is also important to remember that, beyond their core commitment to independence, Plaid Cymru’s manifesto is in keeping with traditional Labour policy; the ‘Party of Wales’ pledged to increase child benefits, invest more in the NHS, and ‘redress economic unfairness’ at last year’s General Election. With Zack Polanski’s Greens pulling ahead of Labour in some national polls and the SNP assuming a seemingly unassailable lead in Scotland, the diverse ‘anti-Reform coalition’ will almost certainly be to the left of Labour, thrusting Starmer into an electoral ‘no man’s land’ where he will both repel Farage’s supporters and fail to attract his detractors.
So, what does this mean for Britain? The forecast from Caerphilly makes a fracturing of the union more likely. If the SNP returns 50-or-so MPs to the House of Commons in 2029, with a further 20 for Plaid Cymru, renewed calls for independence will simultaneously grow louder in two of the United Kingdom’s four countries. Those calls will only intensify if Reform does win a majority, a scenario which is looking increasingly likely. Farage will scrap Welsh language targets, withhold funding from the Senedd and Holyrood, and undermine popular policies whilst seeking to dismantle the system of devolution. Even in the unlikely event that Keir Starmer is able to cling onto power with the help of an electoral coalition, these independence referendums would probably be expedited, with both Plaid and the SNP inevitably making them a condition of any political pact. As Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who obtained support from Catalan separatist party Junts to form a government in 2023, knows well, such a move will make Starmer even more unpopular nationwide than he already is.
Losing the ‘red wall’ in the north of England in 2019 was fatal for Corbyn’s Labour; losing the Welsh wall may destroy Starmer’s for good.
A couple of options remain open to Labour if they wish to avert the devastating scenarios of a Reform Government or the total collapse of the union. The first would be to take aim at Britain’s ‘First-past-the-post’ electoral system, where each constituency of voters elects a single most popular MP, with no prizes, or representation, for second place. This arrangement has historically harmed the country’s smaller parties, proving a particular source of frustration for Farage in 2015 when UKIP received almost 4 million votes but returned just 1 MP, compared to Labour’s 9.3 million votes and 232 members of parliament. As recently as the 2024 General Election, Starmer’s Labour enjoyed a broad but paper-thin electorate that saw them win a number of seats with highly fragile majorities, garnering a third of the total vote but winning almost two thirds of the Commons.
Now, however, Farage has made a ‘friend’ in first-past-the-post, looking to benefit from just a 30% vote share to return an overwhelming majority in Parliament, much like Starmer a year ago. Meanwhile, by coming second to Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems in different English constituencies, second to the SNP in Scotland, and third behind Reform and Plaid in Wales, the Labour Party will be wiped off the map only four years after it painted Britain red. The Tories will also likely suffer; it is the end of the ‘duopoly’ as we know it.
However, by abandoning first-past-the-post in favour of proportional representation, a system which is already in place in most of Europe, tactical voting would become futile and Labour would profit from its broad minority vote share nationwide. Reform would also struggle to form a majority government despite its seemingly unassailable lead in the polls, and the ‘anti-Reform coalition’ would likely take the keys to No.10.
Indeed, with proportional representation already adopted by the Senedd, it will be interesting to see how Labour fare in May, and whether it is able to successfully negotiate a pact with Plaid to lead the Welsh Government and shut out Reform. If successful, it is clear that a more equitable electoral system is one in which Starmer can be kingmaker, rather than court jester. Moreover, the irony of implementing one of Farage’s greatest political aspirations, at the only time that it would hurt him, will not be lost on anyone. Proportional representation is thus an opportunity that is far too lucrative for the Prime Minister to pass up.
There is another nuclear option on the table for Labour: to abandon Starmer and change political course. Replacing one of the West’s most unpopular leaders in recent memory with the pragmatic and well-liked Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham would undoubtedly be a boon to the party’s electoral viability. Moving Labour closer – but not back – to its traditional socialist roots, without the baggage of Corbynism, is perhaps the only way that it will be able to fight for power at the next election. By adopting bold policies to tackle poverty and reduce inequality, such as scrapping the two-child benefit cap and implementing wealth taxes, the party could once again credibly make the case that it represents the other side of the coin to the far-right and Reform, rather than a poor imitation of Farage’s outfit. It does, however, remain to be seen whether Burnham will be able to shake off the ghosts of his two previous unsuccessful bids for Labour leadership. It is even more uncertain whether he will be able to co-operate with the increasingly popular Green Party of Zack Polanski and the ever-pragmatic Liberal Democrats to avoid splitting the left-wing vote. Regardless, a quick glance at Labour’s current roster shows Burnham to be the party’s only hope for 2029.
Both of these options are indeed radical, such is the political emergency that Labour finds itself in, epitomised by that doomed night in Caerphilly.
Last week’s by-election laid bare certain truths but, more disconcertingly, left us with far more questions than answers. What does the future hold for Keir Starmer’s Government, for the British political system, and for the state of the United Kingdom altogether? Only time will tell.
However, if the forecast from the valleys of southern Wales is anything to go by, the current administration would be wise to start preparing for the worst.
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