I’ve watched many football matches over the years. There is nothing more infuriating than watching your team dominate a game, miss multiple sitters, and then concede in the last ten minutes. Inevitably, as the game draws to a close, the commentators say “sometimes it’s just not your day”, as if that will make it any less frustrating.
The Labour Party have not been dominating the game of political communication by any stretch. They’ve been in a low block, 10-men behind the ball, hoping that a long ball might find their striker. Even so, over the course of September, they must have been thinking “it’s just not our month”.
Labour’s primary electoral opponents, Reform UK, have been on a professionalization mission. They are leading in the polls but there remains a sense that, when push comes to shove, they don’t really have what it takes to run the country. If not for attention being pointed at Trump’s America, Rayner’s scandal, and the Robinson march, September would surely have confirmed this inclination held by much of the British public and resigned Reform to waning electoral support.
The first major event in September was the Reform UK party conference. It was, at best, bewildering, and, at worst, sinister. Dr Aseem Malhotra, a cardiologist invited to speak at the conference, quoted another doctor as saying “It’s highly likely that the Covid vaccines have been a factor, a significant factor in the cancer of members of the royal family”, leading to widespread condemnation from the medical community. Sarah Ponchin, the Reform UK MP for Runcorn and Helsby, told the conference she wanted to arrive on stage in a turquoise version of the Islamic headdress, but was told no by the party’s deputy leader. Lucy Conolloy, the women who pled guilty, and was subsequently jailed, for posting “Mass deportation now, set fire to all the fucking hotels full of the bastards for all I care” during last year’s riots, was introduced to the conference as “Britain’s favorite political prisoner”.
In an effort to defend themselves, the party line has been that Reform UK don’t endorse comments like Malhotra’s but are ardent defenders of free speech. It’s a strange defence given these individuals were invited to speak, and an intriguing proposition given the party refuses to speak to local journalists at the Nottingham post. Even so, the party surely must endorse its own leaders’ comments. Just this week, Farage himself has made two spurious claims which bring into question Reform’s suitability to govern. Firstly, when asked this week whether he agrees with Trump’s widely-criticized conspiracy theory linking paracetamol intake during pregnancy to autism, Farage responded “Science is never settled, and we should remember that”. Then, in the very same week, he asked LBC presenter Nick Ferrari “If I said to you that swans were being eaten in Royal Parks in this country, that carp were being taken out of ponds and eaten in this country, by people who come from cultures that have a different… would you agree it was happening here?” This disingenuous question mimics the deeply damaging stereotypes we see Trump make across the pond. It also represents yet another example of populism without evidence, with the Royal Parks charity responding that there is no reported evidence to support this claim.
Given this litany of errors, Reform must have hoped that a serious policy proposal would restore September’s episode of the professionalisation mission. Unsurprisingly, an immigration proposal was dusted off and presented to the public. This proposal included preventing those who are not British citizens from accessing welfare benefits and social housing. In addition, it contained a ban on indefinite leave to remain, which grants settled status to those who have been in the country on a work visa for five years, who have lived here for 10 years or more, or who have family here. Every five years, Reform wants the group eligible for indefinite leave to remain, including those who already have it and who have lived in the UK for many years, to reapply for renewable visas which have very strict conditions. They have claimed that their immigration proposals would deliver £234bn in savings for the taxpayer, more than the entire budget of the NHS and that it would reduce overall net migration numbers. Some critics have argued that it would damage community cohesion by increasing migrants’ uncertainty and tearing apart families, harming the integration that Reform claims that they want. Others, including the think tank that originally calculated the £234bn saving, believe that their numbers are inaccurate. Others still, believe that Reform’s figures don’t account at all for the benefits migrants bring to the economy and that such a move would be catastrophic for sectors with labour shortages like social care.
A proposal this controversial does little to paper over the cracks that September has shown in Reform’s outfit. Many Brits will be nervous about allowing a party that promotes anti-vaccine and anti-painkiller conspiracies to run its health service. The idea of handing over the reins of the Home Office to a party that introduces one-dimensional immigration proposals, without a proper impact assessment or implementation plan, will have done little to settle the nerves.
As Farage flicks through the newspapers come the end of the month, he must be breathing a sigh of relief.
September was hardly the convincing advert for a professional outfit that Reform wanted it to be. As Farage flicks through the newspapers come the end of the month, he must be breathing a sigh of relief. Only headlines about Trump, Rayner, and Robinson have protected Reform from what should have been a setback in their desire to appear ready for government. If not for a more enticing scoop, questions would surely have been asked about whether this group of individuals is really ready to run one of the largest economies in the world at such a fragile point in history. Labour would have piled in, finally sensing the chance for a counter attack and asking whether this is really the group we want managing mortgage rates and negotiating with Putin and Netanyahu. But in politics, like in football, sometimes it’s just not your day.
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